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Preliminary picks: Oscars 2009

What happened in 2008? Where were my words? I remember Diablo Cody. I remember the Coen brothers. I remember... Well, I guess that was all I remember. Oscar nom run down!

Best Actor:
Brad Pitt has an outside shot, but he's not going to outduel Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke. Hollywood loves a comeback, so I'll take The Ram over Harvey Dent. I mean Harvey Milk.


Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway made Bride Wars, which is an Eddie Murphy/Norbit situation. So she's out. Gran Torino (although not nominated) will overshadow Eastwood's lesser work of 2008, Changeling, so Jolie's out. But that's okay, she probably shouldn't have been nominated. Streep continues her dominance, nominated for the 15th time, and she's got a shot having only won twice in all those nominations, added to the fact that it's a weak year for this category. Melissa Leo, perhaps? She was also in Righteous Kill last year. So no. I'll take Kate Winslet in The Reader. I'm not confident about this pick, but Oprah likes her boobs, so what can you do?


Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey Jr. gets nominated for blackface! Congratulations once again, Barack Obama! Hoffman in Capote didn't deserve to beat Ledger in Brokeback in 2006 and that's definitely not going to happen again. If anybody knew who Michael Shannon was he might get a vote or two, but it'll eventually come down to Brolin and Ledger and Ledger will win. Not because he's dead, but because he created a timeless movie villain in his portrayal of the Joker. R.I.P.

Best Supporting Actress:
Good grief, I have no idea. I imagine the Doubt votes will cancel each other out, so that leaves Cruz, Henson, and Tomei. As good as TC2B2 was, I see this film getting overlooked in all categories except Visual Effects. (Although it should win for Best Adapted Screenplay since the original by Fitzgerald sucked so badly.) I'll take Cruz in an upset. Why not? It gives me a chance to look through Penélope Cruz pictures.

Best Picture:
Whoever wins Best Director always has the inside track for winning Best Picture. I'll take Danny Boyle and Slumdog over Gus Van Sant and Milk. This is a dangerous pick, though. Hollywood is still upset over Prop 8 (Prop GAY-te!) and Mr. Milk and company could take some folks by surprise.


Snubs: Aaron Eckhart, Bruce Springsteen, Revolutionary Road, Cate Blanchett probably, and NOT Gran Torino (I'm sorry, but the whole idea is trite) nor The Dark Knight, which was unwillingly stuffed into the "comic book movie" genre and therefore was never going to get serious attention anyway.

Go WALL•E!